Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Deception point: India tests the truth of the 100 day action plan

In its second term the UPA government is faced with bigger challenges than last time. The Congress led alliance has to perform up to its ideology of inclusive social growth. As soon as it came in power, the UPA government announced its 100 days programme, a set of goals for each ministry. Moreover, the real stir was created with PMs letter directing all ministers to step up their work. The 100 day programme, as presented, showed the eagerness of the government to respond to the global economic and security scenario. The government does not want to seem to be doing nothing when the whole world seems to be collapsing. The directives from the high command is echoing through all ministers as they promptly present their 100 days agenda to the press as it is their strategy for the battle ahead. The real issue remains whether the 100 days agenda can bring some sort of solution or is just a gimmick for creating confidence in the common man. In its second term, the government faces the critical challenge of the global economic crisis along with risk of delayed or poor monsoons. Lifting up Asia's third-largest economy from the global slump remains the eye of the storm. India's consolidated fiscal deficit is estimated at 9 percent of gross domestic product for 2009-10, and fresh stimulus measures would mean widening the deficit and higher borrowing. Growth could be as low as 6 percent this year compared with nearly double digits in earlier years. Economists believe the economy may now have bottomed, with a return to vigorous likely towards the end of this year. A stimulus through higher government spending will increase already-heavy borrowing, which is also crowding out private investment needed to expand factory capacities. Delayed monsoons on the other hand have disturbed the growth estimates. Essential food items like pulses and cereals have registered double-digit inflation rates. Normal rainfall in the central regions of the country was the hope for bringing down the prices. However with the delay in monsoon, the nation is left with clouds of uncertainty over the fate of agricultural production and the government has no option but to look up to the sky to find a solution. Amidst such tight fiscal constraints, funds have to be created for the welfare schemes which played a large role in UPAs second time victory. While the government has announced loud its claim for balanced and inclusive growth, regional and social disparities seem to be growing despite of tall claims. While UPA has highlighted new issues in its 100 day agenda, many critical issues have been left aside. The conflict with neighboring countries has not really come up in the agenda, nor has important issues like the problem in Kashmir and North-East. Though the government has big claims of dealing with the issue of terrorism internationally, however at local domestic level, the real issues of those who have suffered its brunt has been ignored. The Kashmiri Diaspora is still waiting for government’s response to their demand of social and political rights in the valley. This ignorance is even more disturbing with two senior leaders from the state holding important ministries. North-East on the other hand, with its small representation is still struggling to get proper attention. 100 days are not enough to deal with the volume of problems faced by the government. However it is a fresh retreat from the system where the term five year plan became synonymous to the meaning that the work will never be done. In the red-tapism torn administration, fast track solutions are always welcome. Short term goals are easier to achieve, but it depends on the scale of the problem as well. For most of the issues taken up by the government, 100 days is not enough to plan the proper framework for its solution. However, it provided a good platform for the government to put forward its work plan before its target aam admi well before the general budgets. Managing the common though is no doubt critical for government while uncertainty prevails from every direction. UPA has always been a good media manager. Perhaps the most efficient strategy on its part was distributing media attention equally on all its programmes. The 100 day agenda has been much in news, mostly for the plans as it is too short a period for any real action. It has however been successful in conveying the message that there is no honeymoon period for the government this time. While the real picture will not be clear till the general budget, a broad figure is already appearing on the course of action to be taken by government. So, is the 100 day agenda a real action plan or a word game to divert attention from the critical issues lying around? Can we expect some real performance in a period as short as 100 days? The questions have almost been answered by officials themselves as they say that the 100 day agenda will prepare the road map for future and never talk about what has actually be done. Let us take it this way, the 100 day agenda calls for focus to the real issues, to prepare planed course of action for future. Despite of all shortcomings it reflects the commitment of the UPA to perform better than last term. The situation is no doubt critical. Many critical fiscal and monetary reforms wait to see the daylight to provide a solution for economic crisis. We face the challenge of cross border terrorism as well as domestic threat from Naxalism. Numerous social and structural reforms also await their turn for ensuring inclusive growth. Climate change presents another challenge as India is the fourth largest carbon emitter. No real solution can be found in 100 days for even one of these problems. However, it can be taken as a time frame for identifying the problems and formulating strategies. With its new style of working the UPA has clearly expressed its eagerness and commitment. Its efficiency is on test for providing solution to perhaps the largest set of problems faced by a government at a single time. Even if these 100 days produce no concrete result, it must provide solid outline to both the problems and the solution.

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